@mInvestor, true and this is all reflected in the stock market beahviour. That is the reasons its always hard to predict and model the stock market behaviour.
That's a good thinking. Unfortunately, we human beings are flawed. We don't always follow what we shall do. All of us know debt, especially bad debt is bad for us, but look at what happening now. Also the calculation is not that simple, I don't think everybody will do dilligent checking before they invest. Human behaviors are complex and hard to predict.
I agree with @Dex and @drivewaygirl that once something reaches the tipping point of mass acceptance the early adopters are gone, baby, gone.
Let me add another metric for analysis of what's hot and what's not: how hard you, the user, have to work in total unpaid obscurity on behalf of the geeky entrepreneurs who will ultimately reap the billions at IPO time.
For example, Pinterest. Remind me why that's fun? Cutting, pasting, bearing ALL the legal liability for what...props for the best boards? NOT HOT!
Facebook is becoming the same way. Shuffle the cat content around endlessly for what exactly? Oh, that's right...so the ZUCKmeister will be my FRIEND! NOT, NOT, NOT hot!
It would be nice if the inverse happened: if companies realized they could profit more by emulating firms that had this desired asymmetrical beta profile. I suspect good management helps boost profit in good times and minimize losses in bad times.
There is no problem with quants per se. The problem with quants on Wall Street is that they come there with some stuff that works for a while and then somebody gives them $1B with unlimited leverage and they feel the need to leverage their model up to LTCM-like levels (50-to-1). Then they blow up. It happens over and over again.
Really all you need a good model, with little-or-modest leverage and keep the egos in check. That almost never happens on Wall St. The egos always get the best of us.
I'm hoping the organization comes up with some simple strategies in its ongoing research to make the system more appealing to people like me
@Drivewaygirl, I wish after the research is complete they will release iOS or Android app so that when I search for the data it shows safe stocks to invest in.
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