If you're a small-business owner still struggling to make ends meet, maybe it's time to relax. According to Leslie Levesque, senior economist at IHS Global Insight, the outlook seems a bit brighter for small-business owners.
Woo-hoo! Where is all this optimism coming from? Well, Levesque noted in an email that:
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index advanced 1.7 points to 92.9.
Respondents' outlook on the economy improved the most, up six percentage points.
Sales expectations (up five percentage points to 1 percent) in the next three months turned positive for the first time since May.
Employment indicators improved markedly as those reporting intentions to hire reached its highest level since February 2008.
And she went on to explain that August represents a change over three previous months of flagging optimism. "The outlook on the economy and business prospects turned brighter, and more small business owners are now expecting higher sales in the next three months."
Still, even an optimist has to face facts. The improved responses were not enough to bring the index back to levels registered in the first half of the year. And, she noted, there is still plenty of continued uncertainty, starting with the outcome of the presidential election, and running through the end-of-year fiscal cliff -- the so-called "taxmageddon."
That uncertainty was also evident in a survey of Hispanic entrepreneurs released this week by Pittsburgh-based PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC). Although the survey found Hispanics are largely optimistic about growing their businesses during the next two years, it noted that "doubts about the economy and cutbacks in their spending may actually stall future expansion..."
Hunkering down in the face of a stubborn U.S. economy, with plans to conserve cash, reduce capital spending and manage expenses carefully, including some who will cut staff. The segment face concerns over several public policy issues, particularly taxes, the federal deficit, health care, climate/environment and immigration.
But in a US News and World Report post, Jonathan Clements, director of financial education at Citi Personal Wealth Management, says there are three positive signs for the economy. He notes:
Americans are sacrificing less. The Citi Economic Pulse found fewer consumers are reducing their credit spending (60 percent this year compared to 68 percent last year), fewer are working a job they "wouldn't take in a better economy" (24 versus 29 percent), and fewer are reducing their restaurant trips (58 versus 67 percent).
The majority of Americans report feeling more in control of their finances. In fact, Citi found 76 percent of respondents feel "a greater sense of control."
The majority of survey respondents said they believe their local economy will improve in the next year, an increase from 41 percent who said the same last year.
So what do you think? Do we need party hats, rose-colored glasses -- or a giant bucket of cold water to restore more realism?
If you believe government statistics, the flood of free money from QE1/2/3 has generated almost no inflation pressure on average consumers. According to WSJ, the group of people who benefits most from QE is the top 1% high income family. It may explain why we do not see much inflation so far.
I agree. Many small businesses in e-commerce and software that I ma working with are doing very well. I guess if you were in machining or manufacturing the story may not be as rosy, but if you are engaging the new technology businesses, you might be doing very well.
A lot of the small businesses I have been working with are doing very well. I think small tech business are gaining steam and doing pretty well. I dont know about other parts of the market but tech seems to be doing well.
Nobody knows what the Tax sceanario will be like in 2013.
We don't know what compromise or mish-mash of regulations Congress will conjure up next year.
I wish I could tell you how many entrepreneurs are wary about expansion and hiring because they have no clue what the Tax sceanario will be like in 2013.
Its frightening for them.
Why can't DC get its act together so the Economy can keep growing????
I'm all for optimism in any form we can get it these days, but I think to really analyze whether the warm and fuzzies are warranted, we need to agree on a definition of small business.
I checked out the SBA definitions and found some surprises. It depends on the category, but in the manufacturing sector a small business can have up to 1500 employees and in the service and retailing sectors a small business can earn up to $21.5MM pretax.
Come on! That's great but it's not the mom and pop scenario that our presidential candidates would have us conjure up.
So, at the end of the day, I think we need to understand exactly WHAT small businesses are being used as the economic canaries in the coal mine because they are NOT all created equal!
The blogs and comments posted on Investor Uprising do not reflect the views of Investor Uprising, PRNewswire, or its sponsors. Investor Uprising, PRNewswire, and its sponsors do not assume responsibility for any comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
To save this item to your list of favorite Investor Uprising content so you can find it later in your Profile page, click the "Save It" button next to the item.
If you found this interesting or useful, please use the links to the services below to share it with other readers. You will need a free account with each service to share an item via that service.
Tweet This