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mInvestor
User Rank
Iron
Re: Growth is part of value investing
mInvestor   6/8/2011 6:57:16 PM
NO RATINGS
You are absolutely right that the playing field can shift dramatcially in couple of years in tech area. Even big companies need to have new things. I think Microsoft and RIM might hang there for many years. Not sure about Nokia and Cisco. Especially Nokia. The move to Windows OS is questionable.

Scott Raynovich
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Growth is part of value investing
Scott Raynovich   6/7/2011 7:11:20 PM
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Value Hiker,

"Hard to find a durable moat" -- good analogy, even though it may be mixed!

Also a good point about the competitive nature of the tech labor market. The best minds always want to go to the next hot thing.

--Scott

Scott Raynovich
User Rank
Blogger
Re: How to manage growth?
Scott Raynovich   6/7/2011 7:09:36 PM
NO RATINGS
tokyogai,

Yes, you are right. The bigger the company gets, the harder it is to maintain a hungry and entrepreneurial culture. What I've noticed about a lot of these companies is that they have an arrogant culture but have lost some of the hunger. That's a deadly combo.

--Scott

PredictableChaos
User Rank
Platinum
Apple versus the world
PredictableChaos   6/7/2011 4:45:16 PM
NO RATINGS
 

There is a common competitor behind some of the problems at Microsoft, Nokia and RIM.  Apple has been on a growth path that is eating everyone's lunch.

RIM is the outgoing leader in smartphones, but they've clearly lost the lead.  Now Apple can ask whatever price they want for their phones (never mind the revenue from apps and music etc.)  And this contributes to the fact that Win-Nokia just about can't give their phones away.

The technology distinction is a good one, Scott.  These fields have much more capability to add capability and features than traditional industry.  The trouble, as I see it - the capability is often used to delight the engineer and confuse the customer.   Apple is critisized within techno-geek circles for over-priced products with limited capability.  But since the products deploy features in a graceful and measured way; a USEFUL way - customers love them.

tokyogai
User Rank
Platinum
How to manage growth?
tokyogai   6/7/2011 3:20:59 PM
NO RATINGS
One thing these companies have in common is that they have lost the formula that made them successful. they were all pioneers and pushed new techjnology. When a company gets to a certain size, it somehopw becomes too slow to make decisions and focuses on interanl operations rather than customers. it is so easy to lose sight of what customers really want and how to give it to them. IBM, for one, has been able to reinvent itself and stay relevant. I have doubts about how many can make the transition.

TelecomFreq
User Rank
Platinum
Next Tech not New Tech
TelecomFreq   6/7/2011 1:55:39 PM
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When companies like Microsoft and Cisco really made major growth it was because they were not just new tech they were the next tech, they were what the future would be. now i feel like those same companies are just developing along the same lines as all the other large companies are doing.

I find it hard to forsee a future with ether microsoft or cisco develops another game changing technology that will give it the kind of growth they once saw. that is not to say i think these companies are done, far from it. i think they will both still add value to the world of technology, but it will be just by adding their own flavor of current technology to the market, not by driving it forward.

yalanand
User Rank
Platinum
Re : Beware the Technology Value Trap
yalanand   6/7/2011 1:50:58 PM
But these companies are all huge. Who has the $200 billion it would take to buy Microsoft? Barely anybody.

Scott,

 On ther other hand these companies are so huge that they can easily buy small companies.  That is what is Intel is doing investing in small companies and upcoming technologies. By investing in small companies they can still catch up with the industry trend.

Value Hiker
User Rank
Platinum
Growth is part of value investing
Value Hiker   6/7/2011 12:40:25 PM
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1 saves
It is a great article about value investing in technology. I espeically enjoy your insight about the difference between big under-value tech company and small undervalue tech company. It is truely an eye opener.

In Buffett's 1992 annual letter to shareholder, he gave a very good explanation about the relationship about value investing and growth investing:

In our opinion, the two approaches (value vs growth) are joined at the hip:  Growth is always a component in the calculation of value, constituting a variable whose importance can range from negligible to enormous and whose impact can be negative as well as positive.

Whether appropriate or not, the term "value investing" is widely used.  Typically, it connotes the purchase of stocks having attributes such as a low ratio of price to book value, a low price-earnings ratio, or a high dividend yield.  Unfortunately, such characteristics, even if they appear in combination, are far from determinative as to whether an investor is indeed buying something for what it is worth and is therefore truly operating on the principle of obtaining value in his investments.  Correspondingly, opposite characteristics - a high ratio of price to book value, a high price-earnings ratio, and a low dividend yield - are in no way inconsistent with a "value" purchase.

Similarly, business growth, per se, tells us little about value.  It's true that growth often has a positive impact on value, sometimes one of spectacular proportions.  But such an effect is far from certain.  For example, investors have regularly poured money into the domestic airline business to finance profitless (or worse) growth.  For these investors, it would have been far better if Orville had failed to get off the ground at Kitty Hawk: The more the industry has grown, the worse the disaster for owners.

Let's come back to the Cisco, Microsoft, Rimm, and Nokia. Yes all of them carry a low p/e & p/b, hoard tons of cash, with a decent to great dividend payout. But none of these will automatically qualify itself as a value investment. Why? they all have a growth problem.

It is hard to apply value investing in tech field due to the following reasons:

1. In most cases, tech innovation disrupts the existing markets. It is hard to find any durable moat in high tech field.

2. Changes are fast, you don't have much time to exit once you spot the trend has turned against you.

3. To stay at the top, company must keep innovating at fast speed. Any hiccup in the progression is dangerous 

4. The turnover rate of high tech employees is much higher than other industries. Once the company is labelled as an underdog, good employee swarm out of the door quickly.

It tooks less than couples years for RIMM, and NOKIA from superstars to underdogs. And the price loss is more than 80% from Peak to bottom. Investors who did not response quickly lost their shirts. People who bottom-fished lost their shirts too.

Cisco & Microsoft once looked like invincible from competition, but once they slowed down their innovation, or cloning other people's innovation, they lost their edge quickly.

As far as business growth, companies like LinkedIn & Groupon has huge growth, but most of the growth brought no benefits to investors, at least in short term. Investing in these companies is a speculation by nature.

 






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