Re: Re : Johnson Controls Waxes & Wanes
TonyKau
7/6/2011 5:34:20 PM
Yalanand,
For me, looking at a fundamental valuation as a baseline, and considering material developments along a timeline is the most thorough process. Google Finance helps greatly with this, as you can quickly explore the headlines around significant movements.
Zacks.com and Morningstar.com both have thorough news feeds that I like to dig into as well. And check Reuters.com for analyst adjustments.
Re : Johnson Controls Waxes & Wanes
yalanand
7/6/2011 1:49:21 PM
This is a very good demonstration of how a lack of material news over a time frame can lead to these types of channel patterns -- where price action is mostly noise.
Tony,
How to identify and eliminate this noise ? Do we have any techniques to identify this noise ?
Re: contrarian position
tokyogai
7/6/2011 12:51:20 PM
I agree. This approach makes a great deal of sense.
Its a good time for Johnson Controls...got to get on the bandwagon before its too late
Re: contrarian position
AskAsa
7/5/2011 2:26:40 PM
AskAsa,
Let me attempt a response -
The run-up in JCI is built on an expectation that hybrid vehicles will cause a large increase in needs for batteries and that JCI is well-positioned to capitalize on this need.
While JCI is a leading company in automotive batteries and does have the manufacturing and chemical expertise for this role, there are a couple of good reasons to be skeptical.
1 - Will there really be as much of an increase in battery needs as people are expecting? If gasoline prices pull back from recent levels, maybe not. Car buyers have shown several times that they will move back to larger cars, as soon as there is some relief in gasoline prices. This same fickleness can affect the demand for hybrids if we see some easing in fuel prices.
2 - Even if hybrids do sell well, will JCI benefit as much as the current stock price trend anticipates? If this really takes off like a rocket, it seems to me that competition will be fierce and margins will have to come down. In short, reality would seem to temper the optimism that is currently priced-into JCI's stock.
contrarian position
AskAsa
7/5/2011 2:01:14 PM
Hi Tony
I respect your position as a contrarian, but I'm intrigued by your analysis given the company's generally positive rating by analysts. Can you tell me in words not numbers why the guys rating this a buy are wrong?
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