If Fedex is down, the USPS must be sinking fast...
Street Smart
9/23/2011 7:01:11 PM
Interesting point about Fedex fourth quarter projections being down, drivewaygirl! Per the earlier blog post about the US Postal Service, I couldn't help but generalize to what awful news those statistics will be for them as well.
Merchants will be needing QUITE the Cyber-Monday to pull this holiday season out or I am predicting that it will be Ho-ho-horrible!
Reach Out and Touch Someone
PAW
9/23/2011 4:26:33 PM
“In efforts to boost sales, retailers are leaving no method of contact untouched…..”
Retailers can contact me anyway they want….but I still won’t be spending much on Christmas this year. Not with the uncertainty of my job and general weakness of my checking account.
Re: Fedex
driven
9/23/2011 8:23:53 AM
You're right, drivewaygirl. That's an ominous sign. Fewer packages. Less spending. Double dip anyone?
Re: This can't be good for retail
Phoenix
9/23/2011 8:23:06 AM
I also feel that the retailers are gaining more with the early shopping game than the consumers. From the look of things prices of items might even go down by December. There are also the last minute discounts when the retailers have no option but to cut costs to get rid of excess stock. So I agree with you that even if early shopping looks like a good idea it doesn't actually bring much of an advantage from the consumers point of view.
FedEx Corp just cut its full-year profit outlook, citing high fuel costs and a weak global economy. That can be a good sign for its expectations for the holiday shipping season.
Re: This can't be good for retail
cat tail
9/23/2011 7:53:07 AM
Wow I was going to disagree with that mindset until I saw the tracked companies on the right and it looks like a bad spelling test (red & minuses all over).
Re: This can't be good for retail
Street Smart
9/22/2011 5:00:19 PM
My decision sciences professor in business school used to remind us that we should never decide today what we could decide tomorrow AT NO COST.
Based on that premise, it's hard to see what's in it for the consumer in a lot of cases to be doing Christmas shopping too early. Yes, there are deals, but one's family's wish lists typically haven't yet jelled by September/October--the most popular toy, the "it" clothing item, the newest Apple product, so there is a monster risk of being saddled with a bunch of stuff that feels out-dated and off-trend even though it was bought just a few months before December.
Then poor forward-thinking Mom has to go out and buy even MORE stuff, which I'm sure the retailers love, but totally defeats the purpose and makes her feel like a chump for being an early shopper.
I think the model we've been seeing the past few years is more the model of shopping flash sales starting on Black Friday, and I predict that's what will happen again this year.
"pessimism is the consensus"
I disagree. If you look at Wall St. strategists -- they still see S&P 500 earnings GOING UP NEXT YEAR! It's funny, Wall St. always gets shocked when things don't go up and up and up forever.
But having S&P 500 earnings higher in 2012 is by definition, a bullish consensus. So I do not think that "pessimism is the consensus." In fact, I think it's been the opposite (until today of course).
Somehow it will turn around, but I don't know how.
We've all seen optimism and how it can reinforce itself and take a self-fulfulling prophecy beyond what makes any sense. (Think housing prices in California until 2006)
With today's pessimism, causing people to spend less, which causes more businesses to pull back on their investments, causing people to be more pessimistic; I wonder how it gets turned around and what we can do to break the cycle before it takes us down further than we should have to go.
The blogs and comments posted on Investor Uprising do not reflect the views of Investor Uprising, PRNewswire, or its sponsors. Investor Uprising, PRNewswire, and its sponsors do not assume responsibility for any comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
Tweet This