Noreen,
Thanks, but I'm just pointing out what's already out there in the publicly available data! Savings rate is going down, just to provide modest sales growth. So that means part of the growth is plain-old inflation and the rest of it is people reducing their savings to buy things. To compound the outlook, all the data shows the real incomes are flat or declining, meaning that pay is not keeping up with inflation.
What grates on me is that many people in the financial media, especially financial TV, are always finding ways to put a positive spin on reality so that they can get out the pom-poms. Now, there is nothing wrong with optimism, other than if you are supposed to be reporting reality and it conflicts with the data.
Like I said, I would rather see the savings rate go up. It might mean weaker spending but it would mean people are rebuilding their balance sheets for a stronger economy in the future.
--Scott
Kudos Scott: You called it first.
Despite the Black Friday media hype, chain store sales were very disappointing in November. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reports monthly chain store sales fell for the second consecutive time in month-over-month terms; in year-over-year rates it is the weakest gain since March.
- The November ICSC report of same store sales (excluding Wal-Mart) improved 3.2% from a year earlier, its slowest increase since March. Chain store sales fell for the second time in a row in month-on-month terms.
- Department, discount, and drug stores posted weaker gains in November than in October (in year-over-year terms). Wholesale clubs were robust but on par with the previous month's gains. Apparel was up a little after being flat. Luxury store sales were up 6.5% y/y in November compared to a 4.5% y/y gain in October.
IHS Global Insight U.S. Economist Chris Christopher said today: "This report is disappointing. Many retailers are struggling since consumer spending is not very strong. Holiday shoppers are looking for good deals and the days of throwing caution to the wind are long gone."
Ha, yes, Black Friday is Khaki Friday indeed -- only with holes in the Khakis.
Amazing what comes through my head sometimes.....wish I could do what you do for a living!
"How many people got out of bed at some ungodly hour and stood in line for any number of Black Friday deals last month? For those who raised hands, may I ask that you take that hand, form a cup with your other hand, and splash cold water on your faces?"
Funny post Michael!
Scott,
Check the following out; I wrote about this last year. Black Friday is more like Khaki Friday. It is BLAH.
http://spinsucks.com/communication/the-myth-of-black-friday-and-why-we-should-end-it/
I read this morning (somewhere, need to find it again), that most retailers were selling goods at a loss on Black Friday. In other words, Black Friday may have been Red Friday... hence the booming sales, through price slashing.
Re: Why Black?
tokyogai
11/30/2011 9:39:01 AM
And here I thought that it was somehow racist..
It's simple: From the practise of using red and black ink on financial balance sheets.
Red ink denotes debt or losses. But a business that's in the black is financially solvent
Retailers look at the Friday after Thanksgiving as a chance to transform red ink to black ink -- hence "Black Friday."
Why Black?
tokyogai
11/30/2011 8:54:03 AM
OK, I agree with your points and fail to see why people get so excited over this whole event. But how did it get named Balck Friday? I fail to understand the name.
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