You're right Scott, phony data does get corrected from time to time. However, the revisions are done at least annually and are not limited to just one year back. The data I presented was revised back 5 years and I guarantee that it will be revised again.
Unfortunately, the damage is done in the present and the data is corrected afterwards. If lies affect the election it will not change things to have the truth come out a year after it's outcome is history.
Let's all agree to call a lie a lie and not use the silly excuse that "it's just politics." That's no different from calling a thief a needy person and giving him a house and a car that you pay for for the rest of your life.
Fred,
The data is always manipulated but it always comes out in the wash. I think it's more important to watch private data. One thing I've seen lately is that for the first time in many quarters, there were more downside earnings revisions than upside earnings revisions. For that reason I think how the stock market acts in 1Q 2012 will be a big harbinger of the rest of the year. Everybody always gets giddy during an upside earnings cycle but they forget how painful and lengthy it can be on the downside.
That being said, can these coporations please do something constructive with all those profits!
Re: Speaking of lies and statistics...
Scott Raynovich
12/29/2011 11:53:04 AM
Thanks Noreen, good stuff.
I continue to believe that demographics and population will be the number one driving factor in the economy. Think about it: Japan and Europe are perpetually sluggish because of rising debts and a dwindling and aging population.
So far, the U.S. has fended off some of these problems but our population is now aging so we are falling into the same trap -- fewer younger people to support a rising aging class.
There would be no social security problem without the baby boomers. If there were more young people rising up in the working class, it wouldn't matter.
So really the question is can the U.S. find a way to continue population growth, either through immigration or births. Population growth has driven the ecomomy for 100 years or more.
Re: Art of lying
PAW
12/29/2011 11:09:58 AM
It is still "information" but it needs to be viewed with a skeptical eye.
It's a shame that we can't just call it "information" anymore.
Re: Art of lying
tokyogai
12/29/2011 10:55:48 AM
I think these days we just call it politics.
Re: Art of lying
PAW
12/29/2011 10:36:16 AM
I think it is always a good idea to be skeptical of any data from the government or special interest goups. It is amazing how data can be manipulated to bolster a governmental agency or special interest groups agenda.
Re: Art of lying
Phoenix
12/29/2011 10:20:14 AM
Thank you Fred for helping us read between the lines. This has really opened my eyes. I will think twice when reading a report the next time and taking what is said at face value.
Art of lying
tokyogai
12/29/2011 9:43:54 AM
Good insight Fred! It just goes to show that figures lie and liars figure!
The Census Bureau projects the US population will be 312,780,968 on New Year's Day -- an increase of 2,250,129 or 0.7% from a year ago and 1.3% more than the total population on Census Day, April 1, 2010.
In January 2012, one birth is expected to occur every eight seconds in the United States and one death every 12 seconds.
Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 46 seconds in January 2012.
The combination of births, deaths and net international migration results in an increase in the total US population of one person every 17 seconds.
Cuddle up!
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