Re: Five Reasons Not to Chase the Rally Now
Broadway
2/15/2012 11:35:17 PM
How about the recent headlines made by Prof. Siegel of Wharton fame, calling for the Dow to hit 15,000, maybe even 17,000? (see http://www.cnbc.com/id/46368101). The broken record message of an old bull?
Re: Five Reasons Not to Chase the Rally Now
mInvestor
2/15/2012 10:54:36 PM
@Dex and @Scott,
My opinion, save, re-invest and dollar cost average is good and easier to do. But opportunistic times entry is quite challenge. Market timing in my opinion is more art than science. Or you guys have better idea to achieve this, mind share the secrets with us?
I'd say this article is right on time. Helps people stay cool while the market is irrestonal.
Listening to them bicker and negotiate gets real old... it's like the destitute cousin begging your rich Uncle Vinny for money... you know everybody has those two characters in their family yeah?
Re: Looking to Sell
Broadway
2/14/2012 9:47:49 PM
Problem with Greece is that the corrupt people leading that place still have nothing to lose whether Athens stays in the EU or whather it goes back the drachma (sp?). So they can play the austerity game as long as the Germanys and Frances of the world demand it and yet never make any true reforms of the system. Then if the EU and the banks get tired of Greece's game and kick them out of the currency, that's a win for these same elites because they'll be able to print themselves money while the rest of their country drowns in hyperinflation.
What's weird about Greece thing is that everybody seems to forget about 2010 when there was a "big Greece panic" that drove down the market and then there was the "Huge Greek Bailout."
Here we are two years later, and basically nothing has changed -- only the Greek economy is even worse shape and the debt problem has grown.
I wrote about the original "Baklava Bailout" on my blog in 2010. Check out my shopping list from back then. Not bad!!
http://raynoreport.com/2010/02/the-baklava-bailout-todays-shopping-list/
Thanks Scott for providing some basis for selling. I can only wonder at the talking heads on TV - do they even listen to what they're saying?
I heard one say that we've already talked Greece to death. Yes we have, but talking about it hasn't really solved anything, has it?
Each Guru has his circle of competence
Value Hiker
2/14/2012 3:27:56 PM
"But you might notice that Roubini has a habit of getting bullish at exactly the wrong time."
Good point, Mr.Roubini is the caller of Doomday, he has a tracking record to call the bear, not the bull. Just like another bear, John Paulson, who lost big time last year for his bet on bullish market.
Re: Five Reasons Not to Chase the Rally Now
Dex
2/14/2012 2:18:12 PM
The only way to beat the market over time is to save, re-invest, dollar cost average at opportunistic times.
You can't make the message any clearer than that Scott.
As I mentioned yesterday, there is a good chance Volatility may start to spike again as every time it gets down to the 15-20 range it tends to bounce up again.
This again is why I bought VXX this week and last as described in the post above. I believe VXX is a great hedge to a long portfolio because you can capture profits on a volatility spike.
Action today: VXX is rising again and to me appears to have reversed its recent decline.
Re: Five Reasons Not to Chase the Rally Now
Scott Raynovich
2/14/2012 12:23:48 PM
High-quality dividend stocks are fine. In fact they underperformed for years and they are just now performing so nothing wrong with holding them as long as you could stomach a pullback, you invest more over time, you are saving money and you are ready to buy more on market swoons.
The only way to beat the market over time is to save, re-invest, dollar cost average at opportunistic times. Even if the market pulls back or falls again I don't think we're going back to Mardh 2009 because the Central Banksters have shown they won't let that happen -- they'll prop the market up with printed money.
Think of the difference in the last ten years of the guy that sold at lows vs. the person that doubled down and added on lows. The difference between winning and losing.
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