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Dex
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Iron
Intriguing
Dex   2/22/2012 9:10:07 AM
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Very interesting list, @Noreen. I'm interested to watch how this mock portfolio performs.

cat tail
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Platinum
Re: Intriguing
cat tail   2/22/2012 9:21:29 AM
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I agree @Dex. I think this is an interesting list of companies, all of which seem to have good potential.

driven
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Iron
Bra shopping
driven   2/22/2012 9:15:16 AM
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You made me laugh with that statement about Victoria's Secret. Some of their bras are so strangely designed that there is no place to put your ... well, you get the picture. I agree with the recommendation on Soma Intimates-the clerks are actually trained to fit you, and they have a wide range of sizes.

Scott Raynovich
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Blogger
Chicos
Scott Raynovich   2/22/2012 9:16:07 AM
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Noreen Seebacher
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Blogger
Re: Chicos
Noreen Seebacher   2/22/2012 9:26:00 AM
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That's terrific! And if you read the report, it cites strong demand for Chico's pricier White House Black Market and Soma Intimates brands -- the two brands we mentioned in our post -- which offset big discounts at its namesake division.

Drivewaygirl
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Platinum
Re: Chicos
Drivewaygirl   2/22/2012 9:58:11 AM
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Soma Intimates is a growing go-to retailer, not just for adult (35 and up) women but for younger women, too. There is big differentiation with VS, in a good way, especially for woman in search of adequate support.

Tenacious
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Platinum
Re: Chicos
Tenacious   2/22/2012 10:02:47 AM
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I'll drink to that. Pass me a Blue Moon.

tokyogai
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Platinum
Re: Chicos
tokyogai   2/22/2012 10:38:15 AM
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Noreen- based on the start maybe you should actually buy the portfolio.

Phoenix
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Gold
Re: Chicos
Phoenix   2/22/2012 11:19:29 AM
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Intuition can be very powerful in guiding you. But you do have to use a bit of common sense too. So investing on familiar places might just be the magic formular that does it. I will be looking forward to your future posts on this.

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Chicos
Noreen Seebacher   2/22/2012 1:05:19 PM
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I think we should see how our test progresses!

Noreen Seebacher
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Blogger
Your additions
Noreen Seebacher   2/22/2012 1:06:23 PM
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If you were going to add to this list of six, which companies would you add and why?

Value Hiker
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Platinum
Re: Your additions
Value Hiker   2/22/2012 4:04:39 PM
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I will add Costco, it has been on my radar screen for a long, long time. The only problem is its stock was never sold cheap. The reason to choose Costco:

  1. It is easy to track, I am shopping there every week. If their business goes wrong, I can sense it first hand.
  2. It has the highest customer loyalty in retailing industries
  3. Tracking record for the past is great
The only drawback is the legendary Jim Sinegal retired last year, there is some uncertainty about the new CEO


 

 

Scott Raynovich
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Blogger
Re: Your additions
Scott Raynovich   2/22/2012 6:00:31 PM
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COST is not showing up on the screens cause it's not that cheap.

Forward P/E of 20 and PEG of 1.6. With so many deals around

it's hard to pick that one.

Noreen Seebacher
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Blogger
Re: Your additions
Noreen Seebacher   2/22/2012 6:53:39 PM
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I still have faith in Costco, although I'm hoping the magic remains with the new CEO.

Value Hiker
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Platinum
Re: Your additions
Value Hiker   2/22/2012 9:13:37 PM
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There are too many companies lost their mojo after the great founders left their positions: Dell, Starbucks, Microsoft, maybe Apple in the 90s too. I am not sure how Costco will fare in this case. But if it falters, I may find a good chance to chip in.

mInvestor
User Rank
Iron
Re: Your additions
mInvestor   2/22/2012 11:17:07 PM
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I'd add following companies. All of them have been doing great, and eash is at leading position in its field.

Intel, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnso, AT&T, Microsof, Lockheed Martin Corp.

All of them are well known, and it's quite easy to find out if  they are doing OK. We either use their products daily, or the media and newspaper just love to cover them.

 

Noreen Seebacher
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Blogger
Re: Your additions
Noreen Seebacher   2/23/2012 7:40:49 AM
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Caterpillar is trading at compelling valuations, and it just announced it was bringing a new  construction equipment plant to Athens, Ga., which will ultimately employ about 1,400 people. On a personal level, driving a backhoe is on my bucketlist. So I'm in.

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Your additions
Noreen Seebacher   2/23/2012 7:44:40 AM
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Home Depot has the numbers but I can't get past the fact that I feel like I need a yoga class or a drink every time i leave one of the stores. At least in my area, the clerks are not only unhelpful...they often make things worse by offering erroneous product advice. If you can find one, that is. They like to hide to avoid answering consumer questions -- which may only be because they realize they haven't a clue about home repair or construction.

Noreen Seebacher
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Blogger
Re: Your additions
Noreen Seebacher   2/23/2012 7:50:46 AM
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I like American Express. It is my go-to credit card, and the only one that I do not mind shelling out an exhorbitant annual fee to carry because I feel I get value from it in the form of purchase protection, travel upgrades, dispute intervention, etc. Some people say Capital One, with current returns of around 17%, is also ready to pop. But Capital One is my least favorite financial institution (which, incidentally, just completed the acquisition of my favorite, ING Direct, effectively ruining a good relationship). What's my beef with Capital One? Questionable consumer practices that resulted in mountains of complaints during the decade or so when I was handling a lot of those issues -- and tepid responses from management when the errors were pointed out.

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Your additions
Noreen Seebacher   2/23/2012 8:00:32 AM
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You gotta hand it to FedEx. Remember that FedEx guy caught tossing a computer monitor over a fence during the holidays -- the one that went viral on the Web? Well, I liked how the company responded.  FedEx U.S. Operations VP Matthew Thornton III replayed the incident three times during his YouTube video apology. That was impressive, and said something good about the company.

Drivewaygirl
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Your additions
Drivewaygirl   2/23/2012 8:20:15 AM
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FedEx Corp. may try to jump into the bidding for TNT Express NV after the board of Europe's second- largest package-delivery company rejected a $6.43 billion offer from United Parcel Service Inc.

The story notes:

TNT turned down UPS's initial offer of 9 euros a share while saying Feb. 17 that talks continue. That leaves an opening for FedEx, operator of the world's biggest cargo airline, to swoop in to keep Hoofddorp, Netherlands-based TNT out of UPS's hands, said Kevin Sterling, an analyst at BB&T Capital Markets.

The prize would be expansion in Europe, where Deutsche Post AG's DHL leads in express deliveries, Sterling said in an interview. A bid by UPS, the largest package-delivery company, or Memphis, Tennessee-based FedEx has been the subject of speculation for years.

Drivewaygirl
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Your additions
Drivewaygirl   2/23/2012 8:17:42 AM
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I have to agree with you on Home Depot. I'd rate this one of those companies where intuition has to play a factor. There is something about the management that makes me question its long term profitability, no matter how good the numbers seem on paper.

AskAsa
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Your additions
AskAsa   2/23/2012 8:50:44 AM
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I'd much rather hit a local hardware store (or Lowe's) than HD. Not a company I'd like to invest in.

Scott Raynovich
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Your additions
Scott Raynovich   2/24/2012 8:42:46 AM
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Home Depot: Noreen I agree.

Lowe's definitely has better customer service.

And have you ever spent 1 hour trying to find one bolt in H.D.? There is still something to be said for the small local  hardware store on Main Street, which fortunately we still have in my town.

AskAsa
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Your additions
AskAsa   2/23/2012 8:57:31 AM
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I'd hold off on J&J until it's clear how Alex Gorsky takes over for CEO William Weldon in April. Gorsky has a lot of issues on his plate, including those recent quaiity problems.

mInvestor
User Rank
Iron
Re: Your additions
mInvestor   2/23/2012 9:58:24 AM
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@AskAsa,

You are right on this. I wouldn't suggest a move on J&J before the cloud is clear. But all those uncertainties might give us a chance to buy this stock at a good price. Anyway, this company is well known and has performed pretty well for a long time. And people can find out it's peroformance easily by heading to grocery stores and pharmacy.

In terms of Home Depot and Lowes, I'd certainly vote for Lowes. The service we get in two stores is at completely deifferent levels.

 



 

Street Smart
User Rank
Platinum
Kohl's
Street Smart   2/22/2012 11:00:40 AM
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The fuss about Kohl's used to be lost on me.  I got it in theory but two things drove me around the bend--the horrible, messy fitting rooms and the long, long lines.

I thought I would die there, either in a clothing avalance or waiting in line behind someone who was seemingly negotiating to merge the company with both Sears AND JC Penney they were taking so long.  It was the last stock on earth I would have bought!

Recently I went in to buy a mattress pad and the escalator was broken.  A lovely male sales clerk helped me carry my purchase back up the broken escalator and all the way to the register.  I went back the next day to exchange something else.  The customer service woman was unbelievably helpful and upbeat and gave me a sale price rebate on the item for a sale that wasn't happening until the coming weekend.

The cashiers have been great; there's a line expeditor on weekends. I have yet to hit the dressing rooms but I'm gathering courage and I saw a very cute Vera Wang top I just might go back and try on.

Bottom line:  Some focus group somewhere has worked its magic and I wish Kohl's (and your stock pick @Noreen) EVERY SUCCESS for listening to the consumer!

Scott Raynovich
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Kohl's
Scott Raynovich   2/22/2012 2:43:32 PM
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Kohl's has been showing up in my stock screens for years. Still a good value, I think. Also they just opened a story in my town for the first time so maybe an anecdotal indication of the popularized expansion.

Scott Raynovich
User Rank
Blogger
Peter Lynch Potential
Scott Raynovich   2/22/2012 2:53:53 PM
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Here is *Part* of a stock screen I just ran trying to identify companies regularly beating estimates and rising earnings estimates for next year. I cherry-picked the most household names that might be "Peter Lynch" stories. Also don't want to give away all my secrets ;-)

 

 
Stock Ticker Company Name Sales/Revenues ($ mil.) Earnings Surprise Last Quarter (%) Chg. in Next Yr. Est. - Last 4 Wks. (%) 3-Yr. Earnings Growth (%) Curr. Price Market Capitalization (mil.) Forward P/E (Curr. Yr.) Return on Equity (%) Exchange Yield (%)
AAPL Apple Inc. 127,841 36.55 17.82 67.52 514.85 480,031 12.108 36.6 NASD 0
WFC Wells Fargo & Co. 87,597 1.89 0.45 55.48 30.96 163,268 9.675 12.3 NYSE 1.55
QCOM Qualcomm Inc. 16,296 7.19 3.21 24.43 62.78 106,187 16.741 15.7 NASD 1.37
CAT Caterpillar Inc. 60,138 32.03 6.23 20.56 115 74,361 12.105 38.3 NYSE 1.6
HD Home Depot Inc. 69,507 18.72 0.84 15.31 46.92 72,330 16.55 20.8 NYSE 2.47
AXP American Express Co. 32,282 3.2 0.39 28.24 52.85 61,384 12.348 26 NYSE 1.36
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc. 101,862 13.05 0.31 25.49 55.32 57,807 11.525 18.2 NYSE 1.17
BLK BlackRock Inc. 9,109 2.1 0.75 31.81 194.53 34,801 14.964 9.9 NYSE 2.83
FDX FedEx Corp. 41,323 2.76 0.07 70.56 91.01 28,621 14.265 11 NYSE 0.57
BEN Franklin Resources Inc. 7,068 5.42 0.52 23.66 117.33 25,337 13.425 23 NYSE 0.92
CMI Cummins Inc. 18,048 14.29 2.52 43.72 123.3 23,779 11.913 33.6 NYSE 1.3
WFM Whole Foods Market Inc. 10,495 8.02 1.89 37.72 80.58 14,523 34.584 11.7 NASD 0.69
PETM PETsMART Inc. 5,996 4.45 0.25 15.29 54.42 6,075 21.425 24.3 NASD 1.03
MW Men's Wearhouse Inc. 2,363 21.54 1.72 16.11 38.73 1,985 16.839 10.7 NYSE 1.86
ATU Actuant Corp. Cl A 1,520 17.07 2.01 18.67 28.37 1,933 14.186 13.4 NYSE 0.14
BWLD BUFFALO WILD WINGS 784 9.3 6.1 25.96 86.38 1,586 26.335 15.9 NASD 0
VPRT VistaPrint N.V. 925 23.76 1.38 16.56 40.37 1,490 22.808 28.8 NASD 0
NTGR NETGEAR Inc. 1,181 8.68 2.58 87.98 39.26 1,475 13.775 14.3 NASD 0

 

 


























































































































































































































Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Here's that FedEx video
Noreen Seebacher   2/23/2012 8:04:07 AM
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AskAsa
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Here's that FedEx video
AskAsa   2/23/2012 8:49:52 AM
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That was a good way to handle a disasterous PR situation, and yes, it does say something good about FedEx.

Street Smart
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Here's that FedEx video
Street Smart   2/23/2012 9:20:33 AM
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I agree that the FedEx video was masterful.  The spokesman was highly-placed within the company, but didn't come across as slick; he was to the point and right up front with his apology.

BUT...I've encountered my share of #%&*! FedEx delivery men.  My husband gets a lot of deliveries, and each messenger is more curt than the next.  They're not always actively rude, but even with the "nice" ones, I really get a "time is money" vibe from them...wouldn't want to take a second to smile or chat while I'm signing for the package.

And at my previous job, which was probably one of the largest FedEx accounts in the nation if not the world, our representative was just the meanest, most oppositional person EVER!  We used to joke that FedEx was his day job and he was a serial killer by night.

So...for my money, they have some actual field work left to do to bring corporate image into line with reality, especially compared with UPS delivery folks, the sweetest people on the planet! 

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Here's that FedEx video
Noreen Seebacher   2/23/2012 9:30:01 AM
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Here's some other things to consider about FedEx vs UPS.

Job for job, FedEx offers somewhat higher wages, and it provides a better vacation package. Even if you've worked at FedEx for less than a year, you are still eligible for 2.5 weeks of time off. UPS employees do not get over two weeks of vacation until they are employed between 1-4 years.

UPS, though, is more generous with bonuses. Truck drivers can earn nearly $1,000 per year in bonus money, compared to just $750 at FedEx. In addition, senior program analysts stand to make $1,000 more per year wearing brown.

More women work at FedEx, which counts 26 percent of its workforce as female, as opposed to only 22 percent at UPS.

FedEx Ground runs its package delivery service on an independent contractor model - UPS does not. And the independent contractor model of FedEx is under some legal scrutiny from court authorities however. For example, a California judge recently ruled that certain FedEx contract workers should be treated as employees rather than independent contractors. So that may be something to watch.

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Here's that FedEx video
Noreen Seebacher   2/23/2012 9:31:59 AM
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There was a UPS driver in my town who was a little too sweet with one of the business customers...Her store closed after the divorce that occurred when his extra kindness became public knowledge.

But it's all good: the UPS guy has an office job now.

Street Smart
User Rank
Platinum
Eat My Words
Street Smart   2/23/2012 9:32:58 AM
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Along the lines of investing in familiar places, I'm going to put a watch on Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD).  I think my sons account for about $.50 of their estimated $.93 first quarter EPS!

Seriously, my boys LOVE that place and although I'm no sports nut, I always go along willingly.  The place is packed 24/7, the food is really delicious, and it's well priced.  Service is friendly, refills are plentiful, and there's a sense of community there.  Haven't been there for a Knicks basketball game yet, but that must be SOMETHING ELSE!

The bad news is that the stock is trading at an all time high at $86.00.  Will it stay as hot as its fiery wing sauce?  I'll be watching...

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Eat My Words
Noreen Seebacher   2/23/2012 9:45:04 AM
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I'm with you. My son is contributing the remaining EPS at Wild Wings!

Scott Raynovich
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Blogger
Re: Eat My Words
Scott Raynovich   2/23/2012 11:09:34 AM
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I have been trying to remind myself to buy BWLD every week since the IPO. For seom reason, I keep forgetting.

Another IBD stock.

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Eat My Words
Noreen Seebacher   2/24/2012 8:05:01 AM
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I would have had it on my radar too if I had actually listened to my kids when they told me where they were going. I guess there is some point in listening to what they say.

yalanand
User Rank
Platinum
Re : Familiar Places, Profitable Stocks?
yalanand   2/24/2012 12:47:33 AM
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I'll check back periodically to tell you how they're doing

@Noreen, thanks for those stock picks.  Just curious to know if those stocks perform well will they find place in IU index ?


Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Re : Familiar Places, Profitable Stocks?
Noreen Seebacher   2/24/2012 8:08:22 AM
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Scott used an entirely different metric to pick the stocks for the IU index, although there was some coincidental overlap (Kohls, for example). So it will depend on how the stock is performing the next time Scott screens for additions/deletions to our list.

Scott Raynovich
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Re : Familiar Places, Profitable Stocks?
Scott Raynovich   2/24/2012 8:40:24 AM
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The IU25 Index hit a new all-time high on Thursday and is now up 17% for the year! I'll have a full report on Monday.

 

 

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Costco
Noreen Seebacher   2/29/2012 10:07:12 AM
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Quick update on our 6 stock picks:

Costco  said today that its fiscal second-quarter profit rose 13%, helped by demand both in the U.S. and overseas, though that came at a cost. February same-store sales rose 8%, topping Wall Street's expectations. But shares were little changed in premarket trading after its gross margin narrowed more than analysts expected.

And Kohls, for the quarter ended Jan. 28 (Q4), met expectations on revenues and beat slightly on earnings per share. Compared with the prior-year quarter, revenue was unchanged and GAAP earnings per share improved. Margins dropped across the board

Scott Raynovich
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Costco
Scott Raynovich   2/29/2012 12:17:56 PM
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Excllent, I need to go to Costco because I am out of toilet paper.

Noreen Seebacher
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Costco
Noreen Seebacher   2/29/2012 12:27:32 PM
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Thank you for sharing, @Scott.





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