@Noreen, and this is part of my concern (here we go with the paranoia again...although I don't think it's related to my home life hahaha)...I doubt there any regulations in place that prohibit ppl related to the outcome of a bet to place bets themselves.
Now, you have a scenario where popular opinion is being swayed because of either a "if they're doing it, I might as well do it too" or a "if we're not going to win, then why even bother?" mentality. The fact that people who are the main subject of a bet are actually citing the bets placed for them shows that there is an acknowledgment of this brand of psychological warfare.
Just an aside @ChapAnjou...but given your level of paranoia, have you considered the fact you may just be spending too much time with people who make you anxious? One person can create a lot of anxiety!
Hmm. So Intraders were right about the Michigan primary. But here's a question: Given the wide margin Intraders bet on Romney to win -- and the facts that Romney even pointed to this as a sign of strength going into the day and that he has more money than most of us dream about -- what are the odds he had his people make a bunch of bets on Intrade?
Not sure if we can get that kind of -- to use an overused term "granular information" -- but it would be interesting if we could.
Re: Who Controls the Crystal Ball?
chapAnjou
2/29/2012 9:57:23 AM
@tokyogai, I agree with you. As it stands now, in its very harmless infancy, it's certainly a novel idea and almost comical in its mission (aside from placing bets on events with catastrophic global implications, I just don't get that).
I don't have a problem with ppl being interested in participating or even the existence of the site. As long as it is regulated and that there are no known "conflicts of interest" between bettors and people in high places, I honestly have no problem with it either.
Re: How long will this last
chapAnjou
2/29/2012 9:52:55 AM
@Street Smart, thanks man. I try to keep my paranoia in check but some things just can't stop it from coming out...
With things like intrade.com and the influx of reality show programming (and the idea that it must always contain drama), it honestly seems to me like we're going down a path that will eventually lead to something like The Running Man or Battle Roy---sorry, meant the Hunger Games ;)
Re: Who Controls the Crystal Ball?
tokyogai
2/28/2012 4:02:55 PM
I think it is sick fun,bit if people are interested in doing this, go for it!
Re: How long will this last
ProfR
2/28/2012 3:07:33 PM
StreetSmart,
That is why I said no regulation - as long as this group does not seem to be able to influence the outcome. If it gets to that point, then you are dealing with something similar to insider trading and sports betting by team players. And that should be regulated.
Re: How long will this last
Street Smart
2/28/2012 1:09:00 PM
@chapAnjou, I don't think you're being unduly paranoid at all to raise these questions. I think anything is possible, too. That's one of the reasons why I asked who gets to pick the questions, and why I purposely picked silly questions as illustrations.
The potential for self-fulfilling prophecies is very high indeed...for school shootings, biological attacks, terrorism...the list goes on and on. I know! I've got it! The Hunger Games! Could be a winner...
Re: How long will this last
chapAnjou
2/28/2012 12:54:41 PM
@ProfR,
I think there's a very fine line with this website between it being a fun, quirky little diversion and a dangerous mechanism with global implications. I know that sounds like a total over exageration (and it is, I'll admit that haha), but what's stopping the site from setting up bets where users to the site are in a position to influence the outcome of the bet? Again, I recognize this sounds a little too tom clancy, but it could potentially happen, couldn't it?
What's next...
chapAnjou
2/28/2012 12:46:56 PM
hahaha Street Smart, really good questions. I would definitely put money down on some of those!
Does anyone else get a weird The Running Man vibe from all of this? The idea of placing bets on things like whether or not air strikes will be launched against Iran seems a little tasteless to me. I just picture a smoke-filled room full of a bunch of cigar-chomping, pin stripe suit wearing gangsters putting money down on what year the next big world catastrophe will be.
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