Annie's CEO John Foraker says one of the tools he has used over the years to think strategically about the company's growth and challenges ahead is the Greiner Curve. You can read about it here:
http://betki.blogspot.com/2009/04/using-greiner-curve.html
What do you think of it? Is it a useful way of thinking about the crises that organizations experience as they grow?
I actually just glanced over the Annie's S-1 (NYSE: BNNY). Looks like they made about $2OM in 2011 on about $120M in revenue. But fiscal year ends in March and the run rate is obviously higher this year.
Let's say in 18 months they can earn $30M in profit and you give the stock a 20X multiple for premium growth and you get a $600M valuation.
What's the stock trading at today just a week after the IPO? $648M. And I swear I did not look at that number before I made the calculation.
I think in the long run this company has lots of potential but I would maybe wait a few months to see how the IPO settles out and what happens when the insiders dump some shares.
Yes the drawer can get ugly! And why didn't we chuck some Apple in ther ein 2002!!
@Noreen
Got it. Yes, If it IPO'd I would definitely have to look at the filings. Speaking of which, Annie's (NYSE: BNNY) recently went public and I've been meaning to take a look at it as we've been paying for their ridiculously overpriced by delicious salad dressing for years. I need to get some of my money back.
McDonald's "secretly" owned a portion of the US arm. It was an odd and uncomfortable fit, for anyone who has been to both establishments. In fact, the only reason I patronized the Manhattan shop located in the building where IU is located is because I realized McDonald's had sold out in 2008! To wit:
In 2001, a chunk of its equity was sold to McDonalds, whose culinary principles, ethics and working practices would seem to be antithetical to Pret's own, and Julian Metcalfe, one of the founders of the Pret a Manger sandwich chain, says now that "it was a PR mistake. I hoped we we'd gain a greater understanding of training, discipline and opening in foreign countries, but we didn't learn that many lessons."
@Scott-
Perfect approach to BWLD. I, too, have such an investment "drawer." The contents thereof either make me look brilliant a few years down the line or make me say, "What was I thinking?"
What I mean is that it's good to keep promising companies on your radar. No, I don't think most of us are in positions to make private equity investments. But it toyed with an IPO in 2007 before selling the majority interest to Bridgepoint. And if it keeps growing, going public could become an option again.
Re: It's not about the food
Street Smart
4/5/2012 2:14:04 PM
Pret a Manger does sound interesting but I don't like that McDonalds sold its stake to a private equity firm. WHY would they do that if it was so all-fired successful? Maybe there wasn't a fit with McDonalds and/or the company doesn't like to hold investments on its books long-term, but then neither do private equity firms.
Gotta think that an IPO is on Bridgewater's menu, and that it is grooming and hyping Pret for that. Could be yummy or could be a rich meal that's a little hard to swallow...
@Noreen
Not sure I understand. Unless you are Mitt Romney, it's hard to invest in a company like this through private equity. The average investor would have to wait for an IPO.
Also there are some really large companies owned by private equity. Doesn't necessarily mean they are small, it just means that the financial data isn't public information. I would need public financial data to make an assessment about a company.
Is the best time to look at a company after it has a ticker or when it is poised to attain one? A company that does not franchise and has big growth plans is likely to go public sooner rather than later, don't you think?
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