Re: It is different
driven
4/11/2012 1:38:27 PM
I know several people in their early 60s who retired early, At this point, I doubt they'd resume job hunting no matter what happens with the economy. However, I could see them doing consulting work or starting their own businesses down the line, but you know how hard those jobs are to measure statistically.
Re: It is different
Tenacious
4/11/2012 1:32:44 PM
Economists at Barclays Capital issued a report in March that challenges the belief that the unemployment rate is falling because workers have given up looking for a job and have exited the labor force, and that the rate likely will climb again once these discouraged Americans renew their search for a job.
In "Dispelling an Urban Legend," economist Dean Maki argued that the size of the U.S. workforce is shrinking simply because aging baby boomers are hitting retirement age amid a sluggish economy.
He thinks the theory that the unemployment rate will stop falling and start to rise again as people reenter the workforce if the economy improves amounts to an urban legend.
Your first two are big contributors in my experience - the youngest and oldest parts of the workforce are suffering. I would add another category in the middle -
5) Dual-income families dropping to single-income. One spouse loses a job and - knowing about the challenges of the current employment market - decides to stay home and invest their time and effort into something more productive than a fruitless job hunt.
PC
Yes the drop in people in the labor force is a big factor but I think it is also a perplexing one. I have read a lot of analysis from people trying to figure out what this means. Here are a few of my theories:
1) Young participants leaving the labor force: One component is the "young slacker going home to live with the parents." This is confirmed by a lot of data showing more young people staying at home w/ parents.
2) Another chunk of people are the "too old to get a job but too young to retire" demographic. I personally know a few of these. Let's say you are 62 years old and you were planning to work another five years but the job market has been brutal and there aren't a lot of opportunities for very senior, experienced people. So you end up dropping out of the labor force and retiring because of lack of opportunity.
3) "Back to School." You were in the workforce, recession hit, you tried to find a good job, but didn't like what you saw. So you go back to grad school.
4) Entrepreneur who is "out of the workforce" but not quite "creating lots of jobs yet" because the young enterprise is just squeeking by. Technically you are self-employed and out of the workforce, yeah? This depends on how the government measures this, but the fed job numbers are terrible about measuring entrepreurial activity -- basically they just guess.
These are a few scenarios that are happening anybody have any insight into more?
I am trying to find some conclusive studies on this sort of thing but I haven't seen anyting great, let me know if you see something.
This puts the difference in perspective pretty nicely:
There are 242,604,000 Americans over the age of 16 (working age) which means that 36.2% of the population is no longer part of the work force and are "no longer counted".The decline in the labor force participation rate, the lowest level since the early 1980's, is the primary reason for the drop in the unemployment rate.The important difference is that in the 80's the participation rate was rising – not falling.
stock market of 2012 is dead cat bounce.
We agree. And the timing of the bounce seems to be earlier than the politicains would have liked - it won't be bouncing anymore by the November elections.
There is no doubt year 1998 is different from year 2012. Stock market of 1998 is a running bull, while stock market of 2012 is dead cat bounce. Hope I am wrong.
Good analysis
tokyogai
4/6/2012 8:40:09 AM
This is a good analysis and comparison to the last really good market. I think in the end, fundamentals will win out. The economy is improving and although some of the markets have gotten ahead of themselves, there is real improvement which will eventually translate into better earnings, which should help the markets move ahread. It will not be a straight line, however, given the lack of vigor in the improvements.
The blogs and comments posted on Investor Uprising do not reflect the views of Investor Uprising, PRNewswire, or its sponsors. Investor Uprising, PRNewswire, and its sponsors do not assume responsibility for any comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
|
 |
Latest Blogs
Telecom-equipment maker Ciena is a stock trader’s dream, as long as the timing is correct.
The FTC is offering a $50,000 cash prize to the person or group that can come up with a solution to those annoying robocalls.
Akamai is in the middle of four significant tech trends.
John Malone of Liberty Media will be taking over Sirius XM satellite radio when the existing CEO Mel Karmazin steps down. What's it mean?
Demand for students of the humanities exists, despite widespread aspersions on the discipline.
IU Education
Resources to help you become a better investor
Investor Uprising on Twitter
25 market-moving companies we're tracking
|
Tweet This