More than 6% of the S&P 500 companies have finished reporting as of 4/17. Of the 32 companies in the S&P 500 that have officially reported Q1-2012 results, 75% of them have exceeded industry analysts' estimates and 81% beat sales estimates.
To contrast, in Q4-2011, only 63% of the companies in the S&P 500 beat the consensus earnings estimates and 56% beat the sales forecast.
Earnings, meanwhile, for the 32 companies that have reported are up 8.1% year over year on sales growth of 6.4%.
How optimistic are you this trend will continue as more companies report?
Re: Google
driven
4/13/2012 9:05:16 PM
Google was down more than 4% today. I know anaylsts say the shift to extracting revenue from mobile makes sense long term, but investors sure seem jittery in the short term.
Google shares are down more than 2%, giving up all of yesterday's gains, mainly because cost per click (CPC) in Q1 dropped 12% y/y, which was worse than expected. However, paid clicks were up 39%.
Google CFO Patrick Pichette pointed out on the earnings call that it is important to look at these two metrics together. As long as paid click growth is strong, the decline in CPC is bearable. However, the risk here is that paid click growth slows with CPC still on the decline. The market definitely would not like that.
Pichette also said there are many variables that go into CPC, including FX; mobile vs. computer (mobile has a lower average CPC); emerging markets vs. estabiished (there are lower-priced ads in emerging markets); Google networks vs. outside networks; and ad quality.
Google reported strong first-quarter earnings that were better than expected, though revenue was a bit light, and also approved a 2-for-1 stock split.
The company reported first-quarter earnings of $2.89 billion, or $8.75 a share, on revenue of $8.14 billion excluding traffic acquisition costs. Including traffic acquisition costs Google revenue for the quarter was $10.65 billion. Non-GAAP earnings came in at $10.08 a share.
Rob, how does this match with your expectations and any speculation on how it bodes for the market?
Re: Allot downgrade
tokyogai
4/11/2012 12:53:39 PM
I think they are doing well in sectors that are growing, as you point out. I think that as the recovery starts to build some strength ( as I hope it will this year, unlike last year) they should do better. I am not sure they are a good really long term hold as evidenced by the S&P, but I think they will do much better over the next 1-2 years.
Let's look past Alcoa to the source of its Q1 performance. It saw year-over-year revenue growth in commercial transportation (up 32%), aerospace (up 15%), and automotive (up 7%).
Who feels confident about continued strong performance in these sectors? Do you think weakness in the automotive sector in Europe and China will overshadow pent-up demand for autos in the US?
At least the chart comfirms my opinion! what a dog... let's look at the long-term chart... If you bought the S&P INdex in 1965 you would be up nearly 2000% but if you bought Alcoa you are only up 300%.
So I guess we know how you feel about Alcoa, @Scott...
I a definitely ready for that...anything to offset these gas prices that it seems like all of my earnings are going to. LOL
I've never thought nor cared much about Alcoa's earnings. Its a terribly managed company and their earnings reports are always off the market (whether its upside or downside). In addition to that they are in a terrible, business.
There is almost no correlation at all between Alcoa and the general market.
Other than that, great! ;-)
Just in case you don't believe me, let's look at the charts -- here is Alcoa (AA - blue line) vs. the S&P 500 (green line).
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