Medco is already making cost prohibitive to get branded medications. In the past week, I have reluctantly switched two maintenance medications that members of my family use from brand to generic versions, based on annual cost differences of more than $800 each.
Probaly a goodthing
tokyogai
4/17/2012 9:21:18 AM
Given how much of the budget the big Pharma companies use for advertising and the relatively high cost charged in the US vs other countires, it is probably good to have a limited term of exclusivity.I could be talked into a longer term if I saw a little bit better behaviour on the partt of the drug companies.
Re: Probaly a goodthing
AskAsa
4/17/2012 10:12:44 AM
The ad budgets may be huge but the ads are often incomprehensible. How many times have you watched a commercial for some drug with video of contented people aimlessly walking while a breathless announcer speeds through a legal disclaimer that is actually longer than the commercial message itself?
Re: Probaly a goodthing
tokyogai
4/17/2012 10:18:43 AM
That is true, but how many people really have restless leg syndrome? How many drugs have been sold?
chicken or egg
AskAsa
4/17/2012 11:00:37 AM
I've often wondered about the creative sequence with some of these drugs.
Were they working on a cure for restless leg syndrome? Or was restless leg part of a business remedy for the time and expense that went into developing a drug intended for some other use?
The drug Wellbutrin was introduced as a treatment for ADD and depression.
The same formula was later released as Zyban - a smoking cessation aid.
This is certainly good busines - but I wonder how many syndrome's consumers need to have foisted upon them.
I was watching one the other night and shocked by the disclaimer "some patients may experience suicidal thoughts." Oh great!
Re: Probaly a goodthing
AskAsa
4/17/2012 11:36:48 AM
I saw that one as well.
Even the ones with less confusing disclaimers have a way of mixing odd symbolism.
The man in the desert whose car overheats. It's clear he's a Viagra dude. He lets the car coast into a gas station and then calmly buys a bottle of water and pours it into the steaming radiator. All of this is to show the guy running out of power but knowing how to fix it.
Problem is even room temperature water poured into an overheated radiator in his vintage car will crack the engine block and ruin the car. Something Viagra dude might want to think about.
For even stranger visuals I'm still trying to figure out what the cialis couple is doing in seperate bathtubs out in the wilderness.
Back to the drug companies - it seems they are investing plenty of money in gibberish. But the return must be enormous because the ads keep coming.
My pediatrician was telling me that even kids are brainwashed by the ads. They actually ask for medication by name! And back when Prilosec was prescription only -- when she prescribed a generic for, say, a stomach problem, they often asked "Why can't I have the Purple Pill?" as the drug was referred to in ads.
@Noreen - when the kids ask the pediatrician for the "purple pill" the kids are watching too much TV.
And if I was the pediatricain, I'd have some purple placebos handy.
If I were the pediatrician, I'd send the parents of those kids to the time out room. Who lets their kids watch that much TV? And who doesn't flip out at a kid for asking for a prescription by name? But it is what it is...
And another thing on those Cialis ads: no woman feels sexy while she is in the midst of cleaning out the garage. Give me a break!
Maybe later, if her husband does a really nice job on the garage, and she has time for a bubble bath...and some wine. Maybe then. But not when she's covered in dried leaves and spider webs and smelling of WD-40.
@Noreen
RE: Cialis. That is too funny.
Generic Drugs benefits from the trend
Value Hiker
4/17/2012 11:46:03 AM
Generic drug manufacturers will benefit enormously from this patent trend. One of the best example is Teva. Even its stock is close to 52 weeks high, the price can still go further, considering Teva is the largest generic drug manufacturer in the World.
I had always thought that the work around for patent limits was for drug makers to made slight changes to the drug and apply for new patents, then they pull the old version off the market. does this not happen?
Forest Laboratories' (FRX) first-quarter profits plummeted 40% as its blockbuster antidepressant Lexapro fell off patent. Net income dropped to $192.7 million from $322.5 million, on a 7% decline in revenue to $1.06 billion. Lexapro sales dropped 40% to $355.8 million--and the drug had only faced generic competition for part of the quarter.
But here's the weird thing. Analysts were expecting worse --so the company's shares actually rose after the announcement
In an interview with Bloomberg, John Lechleiter, CEO of Eli Lilly (LLY), says the company must find new treatments and sell more drugs to overcome the revenue decline it will face from losing patent protection on its two top sellers, the antipsychotic Zyprexa and depression treatment Cymbalta.
"I don't think we can save our way out of the enormous challenge we face," he said.
"I don't think we can save our way out of the enormous challenge we face," he said.
Sounds like he might need an antidepressant!
He can get it cheaper now that his company lost the patent!
@Noreen,
LOL. The current patent system has given those big pharms too much advantage and it really hurts the entire society. I believe people will feel cheerful those big pharms losing more.
You're right, most prescription drugs are generic now, so that bodes well for consumers as it tends to drive the price down. Big Pharma is no longer holding an advantage over those who have to have prescription drugs.
In addition to the patent cliff, it seems like there will be more pressure on prices and profits as we move to a one-size fits all insurance program.
With one stroke of a pen, someone in the government can threaten that Drug XYZ is too expensive and therefore,will no longer be covered by anyone's standard insurance plan. If however, the price can be lowered....
So Big Pharma probably suffers under the cost containment pressures of the new Health Care bill. Short-term, this may seem good but if it plays out this way; R&D will be cut and the drug pipeline will dry up.
Re: Health Care Bill
ProfR
4/18/2012 7:47:43 AM
You are right, I think the health care bill has a negative effect if dealt with this way.
However, the I think the government is also forcing insurers to cover more drugs and more people. So this would increase volume demand.
I think these pharma companies will play the game and move the higher pricing to pills that the government and insurers says they will cover.
What about Medicare Part D? It was a Bush II plan. Its cost is estimated to be $800B. It's a giveaway to the pharma industry. But you don't really hear the Repubs talk about this much.
Part D outlays are estimated to increase from 0.4 percent of GDP in 2010 to about 1.7 percent by 2085, according to the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
Here's some historical Part D expenditures:
| |
----total in billions
|
| 2004 |
$0.40 |
| 2005 |
1.1 |
| 2006 |
47.4 |
| 2007 |
49.7 |
| 2008 |
49.3 |
| 2009 |
60.8 |
| 2010 |
62 |
| 2011 |
67.1 |
| 2012 |
76.3 |
| 2013 |
85.2 |
| 2014 |
91.1 |
| 2015 |
100.2 |
| 2016 |
109.9 |
| 2017 |
120 |
| 2018 |
130.6 |
| 2019 |
141.9 |
| 2020 |
156.6 |
| |
$1,349.60 |
Nice stats Noreen.
Yes I am always amazed when the Repubs talk about Dem healthcare plans they descrie "Keynesian Communism" but when you bring up Medicare Part D you just hear crickets. I don't get it. This is a socialized drug plan, pure and simple.
Merck KGaA chairman Dr. Karl-Ludwig Kley told Israel's Globes that there are plenty of new opportunities, patent cliff be damned.
"There are dramatic changes in the world. The patent cliff isn't one of them. The patent cliff is a snapshot of a company's situation. So long as there are patents, there will always be a patent cliff, but there are still a lot of new diseases, as well as old diseases that are making a comeback. There's a great need for innovation and humanity has a capacity to innovate. I am a strong believer in it."
Re: More disease, more money
Dex
4/18/2012 5:19:37 PM
That's one way of looking at it. But he doesn't have to sound so happy about new diseases and "old ones making a comeback"!
LOL...I got that impression, too. Not good to sound happy about disease!
Decision Resources estimates that with the industry entering a period of significant patent expiries, and with ongoing economic headwinds and cost-containment efforts by payers worldwide, future growth looks anemic at best.
Over the next seven years, the global market is expected to record a compound annual growth rate of just 2.1 percent, reaching $817 billion in 2018.
At the company level, Pfizer retained its spot as the top pharmaceutical company by sales by a considerable margin last year, with $58 billion in ethical drug sales in 2011. However, with Lipitor now experiencing generic competition, Decision Resources expects Novartis to be the leading company by 2015, and for it to maintain this position throughout the remainder of the forecast period to 2018.
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