Re: LOL..."Obsessive Portfolio Watchers.."
back2basicz
4/29/2012 6:37:40 AM
Icebreaker,
I know it sounds funny until you realise that real people have put their savings at stake in the Stock market.
Thats when you realise why people are so nervous and check the Stock markets so often.
On the one had,people hear that Social Security and Medicare will run out before 2030 and on the other hand people see that Inflation is steadily chipping away at their Savings and their Salaries/Income does'nt keep pace with Inflation.
So a lot of Investors are depedent on stocks to atleast protect themselves against Inflation.That is why they keep checking and checking and checking again and again and again.
Regards
Ashish.
Mln,
I like looking at my portfolio on a Monthly basis.I select the Second Saturday of every month for this purpose.
On this day,I look at it to see how everything is doing and what changes if any I need to make.
I tend to do this when the Market is closed and I don't have anything else to trouble me or worry me.Its sort of like an Examination.
I sit in a Closed room with no other distractions and this helps me make informed and realistic decisions with nothing but my rational mind affecting me.If I am feeling emotional or moody about something or the other then I don't look at it and rather keep it aside to look at it the next day.
Above everything else,Discipline is Key.
And it works just fine for me.
Try it out!
Ashish.
mln,
One of the simplest ways for most Investors to invest in the Stock market is through One Click ETFs.
I also particularly like ETFs which have strong exposure to Stocks paying Rising Dividends every year.
In such Investments,the best way to go long is to wait for the ETF to go above the 200 Day Moving Average before going Long and if it falls below the 200 Day Moving Average-SELL.
A lot of Investors have gotten totally turned off Stocks after being exposed to Two shocks in 1999 and 2008;most of them are unlikely to re-enter stocks ever again.But that is most unfortunate.For the simple reason that in an Inflationary Environment(like what we are going through today)-Stocks always do well.
At the same time,Ben Bernanke has clearly stated his intention to do whatever he can to ensure Stocks stay at elevated levels.That is another positive sign for the stock market.
Regards
Ashish.
Data Set is not large enough.
back2basicz
4/29/2012 6:15:38 AM
Scott,
The Data Set on the Berkeley paper is not large enough and for the simple reason it does not cover any of the last Two Financial Crises(The Great Depression and the 2008 Recession);I am inclined to take anything they say with a Massive-Massive Pinch of Salt.
We are part of a massive Deleveraging Cycle(which you yourself has alluded to time and again).
In this sceanario,Investors in Stock markets have to have a combination of two things-One is large doses of Internal fortitude and the Second is Investor Discipline particularly when it comes to Valuations and Time Frames.
I have also seen studies which clearly demonstrate the virtues of Holding Stocks for longer(way-way longer) than what is the Median Period of Holding Stocks today(7 months).
But you should not be afraid to Pull the trigger when things are not going your way either.
Taking Small Losses anytimes beat one Big Loser in your Portfolio.The Best and Richest investors regularly say-Let your Winners Run and Cut your losses fast;but its not easy.Also,with the rise of High Frequency Trading its close to impossible for Small Traders to make money reliably in the Stock market today.
As for the nervousness involved with most Investors(which is causing record amounts of Flows out of Stocks and into Bonds);I really don't blame them one bit.They have been cheated so many times by the people who were supposed to protect them and look after their interests and they no longer have in faith in them.
Which is in a way unfortunate as Global Central Bankers have already chosen Inflation as the way to "Solve" the crisis and in this sceanario Stocks always do well.
Regards
Ashish.
I used to like stop loss orders until the market became erratic in the past 2 years they now seem to be too impulsive for me. It all boils down to having faith in your investments for the long haul.
Scott,
Those two are golden rules for all my all investment.
@minvestor
Don't feel bad everybody makes the same mistakes: It's your hard-earned money, the market playing with it stresses you out.
That's why as part of founding this site I have advocated a slow accumulation of high-quality stocks through dollar-cost averaging. It smooths out the volatility. It's something I have implemented in my own investing and it helps put the mind at ease.
1) Dollar-cost averaging -- makes sure you don't make decisions at extremes (2009 problem)
2) Valuation discipline -- makes sure you don't overpay for stocks with the crowd (1999 problem).
@Scott and Street Smart,
That's some advices for me to think them through. Especially the turning points happend in 1999 and 2009. Need to put on my thinking hat to analyse the current situation.
I guess for an average investor with a daily job, bi-weekly checking might be a best option. I will monitor my blood pressure next time when I check my portofolios, hehehe...
Tokyogai,
But adversely, "underwatching" your portfolio can lead to major losses
If you really wanted to do a scientific poll, you might consider something between quarterly and constantly. Constantly may be too often, but only 4X a year isn't enough. To me, weekly is a good frequency, but bi-weekly or monthly also make sense.
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