You left the Best for the Last...
back2basicz
5/27/2012 12:28:36 PM
Scott,
Your points here are well-taken.
Especially this one
But now, get back to work. You have a lot of valuation-building to do to live up to those investor expectations.
FB has to a lot,lot more to justify its current Lofty Valuation(Currently Down 16% from its IPO Price and already been regarded by Bloomberg as the Worst IPO In History).
I believe(as you strongly do);that we are about to Hit by another Major Debt Deleveraging Wave,which is going to swamp Asset Values Globally.
And this time around,thanks to the US Elections there will be No QE3 this Year.
So everything will have to correct back to more fundamental levels.
And currently FB at $32/share is unsustainable.
So it will correct.
Anything that is unsustainable will not be sustained.
Regards
Ashish.
P.S Oh, and Did I mention thanks to the coming Debt Limit Breaches(and failure of Congress to resolve it) as well as the Coming Fiscal Cliff on 1st Jan 2012;we are going to see Massive Hits to stock prices and especially stocks with No Sustainable Business models behind them like FB???And this before the Circus called Europe gets nasty(which it will this Year).
I won't be surprised to see FB trading at $15/share on 1st Jan 2012.That's my bet for now.
Rod,
Here are my Bets.
Netflix at $45/share
FB at $15/share
Both on 1st January 2012.
Ashish.
Rod,
Morgan Stanley remembers anything other than to rip off Small Investors???
Most unlikely.
My personal feeling is that this time around,Wall Street has bitten off more than they can chew and the Damage to Investor Sentiment is going to long-lasting and massive here.
Nobody is going to ever trust Research coming out of the Market-Underwriters before a Firm's IPO.
Never,ever again.
And the very fact that Retail Investors continue to abandon Stocks in Droves (inspite of the Market rising nicely almost vertically at the begginning of this Year) just vindicates this Fundamental Fact.
The market is fundamentally broken and rigged and The Little Guy on the Street Knows it.
Regards
Ashish.
Rod,
One could only expect such flawed analysis from the Journal.
It reminds about that Hype-Crazy Cramer and his calls on FB.In fact,the policy of shorting everything Cramer has recommended has worked,very well so far.Him and that Goldman Analyst-Tom Stolper!!!
I want to know,what is the rationale behind comparing it to of all Companies-Amazon???
Are they trying to say MFs and Hedge Funds who are focussed on the Tech Space ,will abandon Amazon for FB???Its laughable to say the least.
The two companies could not be more apart today.
One has a Sustainable Business Model which is growing and has customers dependent on them to perform their Business.
The other is well ,all Pie in the Sky...
Sure,there are some people who use FB for marketing but its not indispensable for them.
Whats to stop them form moving to an alternative competitor?(which is already happening by the way...GM is just one of the many companies abandoning FB)
Also,Amazon is based on a Fundamental Idea which will never go out of style-Lowering Costs for Consumers as much as possible-Just look at Walmart ,it continues to Grow and Grow and remain Profitable.
In contrast,I can't see much to like about FB.
This is one of the best analysis I Have seen so far on this issue.
http://moneymorning.com/2012/05/25/facebook-stock-is-worth-7-50-a-share-at-best/
Regards
Ashish.
Oh, this is more fun that going to MZ's stupid, spur-of-the-moment wedding!
Oh, I thought you said earlier whichever stock is higher. But that's fine. I will take percentage change at year-end. But what is our start date? Today?
No % increase in stock from date of bet.
NOT absolute value.
Will raise your sushi dinner to buffalo steak dinner at Ted Turner's in Bozeman.
We are just betting which has the highest share price, right? Split-adjusted.
I will take the bet and I will raise you to a Sushi dinner in LA.
By all means join in.
The real lesson here is that Morgan Stanley forgot one of the long standing rules of IPO's: "leave some money on the table for the retail trade".
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