Re: To Regulate or Not to Regulate?
mInvestor
5/31/2012 4:29:03 PM
Lenore,
I like this "big business has a strong affinity for anything that makes it tough for potential competitors to enter their industry, thus businesses are often the natural enemy of free enterprise."
And StreetSmart, you asked a good question "regulate or not". Hehehe... I think we are going to see more regulation in the short term. Which will actually slow our recovery if we get any.
Brazil and Portugal Booming??? Forgetabout it!!!
back2basicz
5/30/2012 3:12:02 AM
Heinrich,
Your Kidding right?
In case you forgot;Let me refresh your Memory-Portugal went to the ECB and got a Bailout just last year.
There is as we speak a massive outflow of Citizens from Portugal(because of lack of Job oppurtunities there).
Where are they heading?
The US,Germany,Australia and the former Portuguese Colonies of Angola and Brazil.
It would have been so much easier for the Portuguese if they just were'nt in the Euro today-Period.
That brings me to Brazil.
Brazil was running on Two Growth factors.
One was the Boom in China(which has now turned to Bust) and the second was Infrastructure spending for the Olympics and Football World Cup this Decade.
Infrastructure Spending for major events tends to peak Two-Three Years before the Event(which is Today);So I would'nt be surprised to see a major Growth Slowdown in Brazil over the next two years or so as Infrastructure spending tapers off.
Regards
Ashish.
Re: How About Something Incremental
back2basicz
5/29/2012 2:55:21 PM
Scott,
Ever the Optimist!!!
But have we priced in Great Depression kind of Valuations today?
I don't think so.
We have still some way to Go.I still see quite a lot of people extremely positive on Stocks(none of the Near Death sentiments we saw at the Bottom in Jan-March 2009 and believe me I was in the Market back then too...)
My bet is that its more important to be (&stay fluid) rather be fixated on any one particular Style/idea of investing.
The thing is liquidity is proving to be a very Useful thing in this New(&Improved) Greater Recession we are dealing with today.
Ashish.
I'm more optimistic. Here's why: If it's the end of the world, why even bother thinking about investing for the future, cause everything would be gone.
Once you've hit bottom, where else do you go?
It turns out that the Depression was a great time to invest.
Re: How About Something Incremental
driven
5/29/2012 2:04:58 PM
That image is scarier than thinking about our fate in the hands of Congress.
Re: How About Something Incremental
Dex
5/29/2012 1:55:21 PM
Yes...depression, economic collapse...it's all coming to this:
Dixie Square Mall in Harvey, IL, closed since 1981.
@Ashish
Commodities and commodities stocks have been killed. this is factoring in slower growth in both the emerging and developed world. That's what I mean when I say the markets have already priced in a signficant slowdown.
Have they priced in a depression? No, but we really don't want to think about that right now...
Re: How About Something Incremental
back2basicz
5/29/2012 10:57:00 AM
Scott,
Yes the Do-Nothing element.
It can't be discounted one bit today.
I was just going through Analyst reports for Luxury Consumer Spending in the US.
And the Do-Nothing element(which means all Taxes rise) has scared the Hell out of all the companies which are very big in this area like Tiffany's and Coach.
They are doing whatever they can to deliver more for less and bump up Luxury Spending this Year(already numbers are dissapointing compared to 2011,because the Euro has fallen against the Dollar so much,its made Europeans less eager to spend in America also Wall Street Bonuses are not what they were last year)
They are desperately trying as much as they can today.
Guess,this shows more evidence of Deflation at play in America today?
Regards
Ashish.
Re: taxes, red tape
Phoenix
5/29/2012 10:51:34 AM
I'm not sure I see anyway out of this in the short term. The recovery will have to be very slow and in the long term. I don't think any quick fixes are available that would actually make a big impact as to change the whole course of things. But surely the taxes are becoming too much of a burden on an already failing system.
Boringness Trumps Excitement today Bigtime!!!
back2basicz
5/29/2012 10:33:52 AM
Scott,
You have to admit,Peter Schiff is Entertaining as Hell to Watch!!!!(even if he completely wrong in how he sees the world going ahead).
I have to admit,I first got interested in Learning more about Finance from Watching his Videos (rarely read most of his Articles).But then as I gained more Knowledge; I realized he barely knew half the stuff he was talking about!!!
You know,I was reading some really fascinating stuff and research from Harvard-They basically say that Boring People who have a laser like Focus on their Chosen Area of expertise rise to the Top in Business and Life.
That left me thinking for a while. that's a statement that could'nt be more true?
Even in the Investing space-Why do stocks of companies like P&G,Abbott Labs,Walmart,Coke and McDonalds consistently beat the Market and return Growing and reliable Returns(Particularly Dividends);its not like they are doing something New or revolutionary or dare I say "Exciting" every Year.But still they give awesome Returns.They are predictably Profitable!!!
As an Entrepreneur I realized this is so so true today.
Do read Fascinating read.
http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/05/boringness_the_secret_to_great.html
Anyways,Ray Dalio is a Legend.No Denying that.
As for the Dollar and US Treasuries Strengthening the Market Agrees.
Here's a Good Piece from Bloomberg talking about how scarce US Dollar Liquidity has become globally.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-28/dollar-scarce-as-top-quality-assets-shrink-42-after-stimulus.html
I just wonder how China and Japan's Move to Drop The US Dollar (In cross Border Transactions)completely from 1st June plays into this Area.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120528-707178.html
China is desperately moving to shift as much of their Cross Border Transactions out of the US Dollar and if possible to the Yuan.Will be interesting to see how this thing plays out in the long run.
And as they say,The Market is the Judge,Jury and Executioner of Last Resort.
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