I'm sorry @Noreen, I don't follow. What is your point? I am completely certain that the Census data is incorrect as is the data released by many agencies. We don't know to what extent it is wrong but we can certainly know without any doubt that when an agency revises its data in the same rosy direction in 75 out of 78 weeks that they are deliberately lying.
Then we also know that when reporters with degrees write about the improvement every week without questioning its accuracy they are either biased or ignorant, and it is immaterial to me which is the better descriptor.
Re: No improvement in employment rate
Fred Goodman
5/31/2012 1:36:13 PM
@PredictableChaos
Just today the monthly report from Challenger Gray & Christmas indicated an increase in layoffs to 61.8 thousand in May. The 12-month average was 53.9 thousand and that compares to a 12-month average of 39.7 thousand in May of 2011.
Please also consider that it is not necessary to seasonally adjust figures based on a 12-month average. So, if you are looking to sugar coat the employment situation please look elsewhere.
Perhaps you could look at the data from ADP. They released their monthly employment report this morning in which they wrote:
"ADP private payroll employment for April was estimated to rise by only 119,000 in what would be significant monthly slowing [emphasis added] versus a revised 201,000 in March."
Then of course you can look at the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index that was released today in which it was stated:
"The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the May Chicago Business Barometer decreased for a third consecutive month to its lowest level since September 2009."
One of their seven business measures is employment which fell from 58.7 in April to 57.0 in May, and it was 64.2 in February.
My point is that it is easy to rationalize a single piece of information and that is what the media does every day with the intention of supporting a point of view that is close to their hearts.
Notwithstanding the bias of the media, business sucks and employment is worse and the last 3.5 years has not made improvements, no matter how many times it is written that "it's not as bad as it could be." In truth it's not as good as it could be.
Re: No improvement in employment rate
mInvestor
5/31/2012 1:20:34 PM
@PredictableChaos,
I agree with your observation. All these data are just some survey numbers, it can be distorted by many errors or variations. 58.2% to 58.3% doesn't mean a real improvement in employement rate. Well, 60% to 58% is a big decline.
Lying? Accuracy? Ask me about Census data sometime Fred...
The big unknown here in the employed to population ratio, in my opinion, is the size of the population, 2010 count notwithstanding.
@Noreen,
Thanks for including the multi-year data. Looking at it, the trends I see are
- Decline from 63% to 58.5% from 2008 to 2010
- Flat-line at 58.5% since 2010
The changes since 2010 are nothing more than seasonal variation - more people work in the summers, fewer people work each December-January.
This seasonal variation wiggle goes back to at least 1990. (You can see it in Fred's 4th chart --- Percentage-of-Civilians-Who-Are-Working).
PC
Yes @Noreen, there has been an improvment from the absolute depths of dispair -- cudos!
However, here's a quote from the Department of Labor's report this morning:
"In the week ending May 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 383,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 373,000. The 4-week moving average was 374,500, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 370,750."
Note that not only was there an increase in the number that lost their jobs last week, but there was a upward revision of the week before equal to their usual average of 3000 people. So, the report this week is actually 13000 worse than was originally reported the previous week.
It is nice to see improvement, but it is no more acceptable to see lying from the reporting agencies than it is to see lying by the media that analyses it.
Re: Understanding the mess
Phoenix
5/31/2012 10:23:24 AM
I really like your posts Fred they help us gain more insight into areas that we fail to understand at a glimpse. Your superb analysis of figures make us see the less obvious hidden meanings behind everything. it is no wonder that figures are manipulated to make things more rosier specially considering the high correlations.
But it is fair to note that there is a slight movement in the right direction, even looking at the employment-population ratio. Granted, the gain is nominal. But I'll take a nominal gain over none at all!
Understanding the mess
tokyogai
5/31/2012 8:42:16 AM
Fred- thanks for a good analysis of the current employment mess. I am sure this will be a lot of fodder for the November election with both sides making opposite points. No matter how you look at it, things are not recovering very quickly.
Lies, Damned Lies and Unemployment
Street Smart
5/31/2012 7:23:05 AM
Thank you @Fred for taking my vague feelings of unease, suspicion and malaise and quantifying them. @Noreen, after reading this, I need some Paris hotel recommendations pronto!
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