LOL Dex, suggesting that they are deliberately lying actually gives them too much credit for knowing what they are doing.
Liars
Dex
6/4/2012 8:51:37 AM
While I agree the government data is often inaccurate, I stop short of suggesting that there is wholesale lying. I think the problem has less to do with liars than incompetence and questionable statistical models.
Re: More on B/D model
yalanand
6/4/2012 8:14:56 AM
The tricky part with gold is that when it reverses it often reverses violently and if you wait two weeks you may miss a $200 move!
@Scott, unfortunately these movements are not reflected in our markets because the rupee has been sliding continuously against the dollor. Its down nearly 20% against dollor in 1 year. So gold in terms of rupee is always going up in India.
Re: More on B/D model
yalanand
6/4/2012 8:11:36 AM
Currency Wars, by James Rickards is a must read for anyone wishing to understand what's going on in the world. Not only in financial matters but in politics in general.
@Fred, thanks for sharing this info. I will order my kindle version today. Meanwhile what is your target on eur-usd , will it breach 1.2 levels ?
Re: More on B/D model
yalanand
6/4/2012 8:08:56 AM
BTW Scott, my first trade in gold was in 1979.
@Fred, were the gold movements so vicious in those days ? And how much profit did you make in your first gold trade :).
Re : A Realist's View on the Job Market
yalanand
6/4/2012 8:03:02 AM
Using this trick, they were able to report an improvement of 1,000 last week when the reality was actually 2,000 worse than reported the week before.
@Fred, there is a famous adage which says "Statistics hides more than what it reveals". So just like statistics these numbers dont give clear picture but confuse the investors. I think investors should do proper study before investing rather than just relying on this number.
Yes @Scott, that reference to the Bloomberg chart on the Nixon move on gold is fascinating. The subject is covered in great detail in a superb book described below.
Currency Wars, by James Rickards is a must read for anyone wishing to understand what's going on in the world. Not only in financial matters but in politics in general.
It's well written and can be absorbed by readers with or without a lot of prior exposure to the material. It received only two 1-star reviews out of 107 at Amazon, and one of the 1-star reviews said "it was actually one of the best books I have read this year."
"BTW Scott, my first trade in gold was in 1979."
Excellent Fred -- you cut your chops in the heyday of the last bull market!
I am but a young gold spring chicken. Wasn't interested until it started to pull out of the doldrums in 2002. And even then it took me two years to take interest!
this chart is fascinating:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-16/u-s-gained-from-ending-gold-standard-in-1971-chart-of-the-day.html
It is saying something -- what exactly it is I'm not sure!
As detailed in my gold analysis last summer, my minimum target for this bull move is $2,500 an ounce.
"The tricky part with gold is that when it reverses it often reverses violently and if you wait two weeks you may miss a $200 move!"
Yes @Scott, it certainly is tricky, which is why I trade the intermediate term. I don't have the temperment or the skill to trade for the short term.
BTW Scott, my first trade in gold was in 1979.
Thanks Fred. Your chart confirms my other indicators. You might look at the work of Eric DeGroot he has been a master in this space. His Diffusion Index called a bottom in gold on Wednesday.
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2012/05/dealers-feet-are-getting-fidgety-in.html
The tricky part with gold is that when it reverses it often reverses violently and if you wait two weeks you may miss a $200 move!
I added to my position this morning. I have been long gold in various sizes since 2004.
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