The job market hinges a lot on geography.
A deeper dive into the state employment numbers paints a more complex hiring picture, one that shows about half the nation returning to past robust employment levels and the other half not. Energy and farm states outperformed the nation, as did states near the nation's capital, according to a new study by IHS Global Insight. States that suffered a housing bust, and old industrial states, continue to suffer the most.
About half the nation's states will return to their peak employment levels this year or next, but the other half, recovery may remain elusive until 2014 or later.
Michigan, Nevada and Rhode Island might have to wait until 2017 to see a return to the peak employment levels that preceded the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.
Re: Liars
Dex
6/6/2012 10:45:22 AM
What a wonderful world...
Re: Liars
AskAsa
6/6/2012 10:09:04 AM
Incompetence at the bottom.
Wholesale liars and manipulators at the top.
Any paritcular reason why gold rallied from 200$ to 800$ in 1980 ?
@yalanand, This was during the Carter administration when "stagflation" was the order of the day and the CPI went from 5.9% to 13.6%. Gold went up because of the Arab oil embargo, interest rates around 18%, unemployment and a loss of faith in government that led to the firing of Carter after a single term and the election of Regan.
Re: More on B/D model
yalanand
6/4/2012 1:28:09 PM
I'm sure you'll agree it was pretty vicious indeed.
@Fred, that is pretty vicious indeed. But am surprised that gold is up just 700$ in last 32 years. Any paritcular reason why gold rallied from 200$ to 800$ in 1980 ?
While I agree the government data is often inaccurate, I stop short of suggesting that there is wholesale lying. I think the problem has less to do with liars than incompetence and questionable statistical models.
Well, @Dex when data is revised every week for 78 weeks and is revised in the same direction that makes the economy look better in 75 of the 78 as we approach the election, I think you have to say it like it is. They would be incompetent if the errors were random, they are liars when it is in the same glorifying direction nearly 100% of the time.
Further, during the Bush years when unemployment was in the 4% range we were told every week how his policies were responsible for it being so high and now we are told that it is still his fault now that it is double that level.
The problem is that the same bureaucrats that were in the DOL during his term are still there today and are biased in the same direction now that they were then.
Bill Clinton had it right when he fired all the judges in the days immediately after his inauguration. I hope the next president has the good sense to accept the resignation of every bureaucrat still working and start over.
@Fred, thanks for sharing this info. I will order my kindle version today. Meanwhile what is your target on eur-usd , will it breach 1.2 levels ?
I know you will enjoy the book @yalanand. However, I know as much about currency trading and prediction now that I knew about trading gold in 1979, and that is not much. I am far more comfortable with the stock market and economic indicators than I am with the other markets
@Fred, were the gold movements so vicious in those days ? And how much profit did you make in your first gold trade :).
@yalanand, the chart below shows how vicious gold trading was in 1979 and 1980
.)
I'm sure you'll agree it was pretty vicious indeed.
I bought in October at four hundred and something and got scared out the day after Thanksgiving, as I remember. I lost a couple of points and never went back in until many years later.
I was young, inexperienced and dumb in those days, now I am old, experienced and dumb.
Re: Re : A Realist's View on the Job Market
Fred Goodman
6/4/2012 12:30:45 PM
@Fred, there is a famous adage which says "Statistics hides more than what it reveals". So just like statistics these numbers dont give clear picture but confuse the investors. I think investors should do proper study before investing rather than just relying on this number.
@Yalanand
I Agree with what you say, that was the point of my post, to give investors information on which they could judge the severity of the employment situation in spite carefully selected, and I beleive carefully distorted, figures supplied by the DOL for a year and a half.
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