This was really uplifting Scott,
Thanks for a great start to the weekend.
Ha! sorry. Look at it this way -- at least the job number wasn't negative!
As I recall we had a couple of negative job number prints in 2011 and then things rebounded!
@scott, no apology for the post, my tracking system started to pop up some 52-weeks low alert after 6-month's silence. It will be a good time for true value investors.
Re: just wonderful
yalanand
6/3/2012 9:38:40 AM
Look at it this way -- at least the job number wasn't negative!
@Scott, what is weighing more on US markets ? Is it bad US economic data or is it negativity surrounding eurozone ? And do you think euro will retest its 2008 lows i.e sub 1.200 levels against USD ?
@yalaland
It's everything. Economic data from around the world has been on the decline for three months including data form the US, China, and Europe. And the fact that the Europe situation appears to be escalating worries investors that it's not about to get better.
Here is a good index that tracks economic numbers in real time:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CESIG10:IND
If you want to feel worse about the whole situation, watch the morning news. Is it possible to see more people blaming each other -- and no one talking about potential solutions?
Today's drop may just be the start of a larger decline.
I think the market is still giving too much credit to the last round of banking bailouts. Soon, when that becomes apparent, I expect larger pull-backs. And when the China slowdown works its way through the rest of the system...watch out. And on that uplifting note,
have a great weekend everyone!
PC
...and they're saying that Greece will be out of the Eurozone within a month, which however long anticipated, will still be a shock.
Man, those derivatives numbers are scary. It feels like we're dancing on the edge of a global volcano.
...and they're saying that Greece will be out of the Eurozone within a month, which however long anticipated, will still be a shock.
Greece is just 2% or 3% of the EU. Everyone has had a lot of time to think about Greece and it's not a big domino. I think it's mostly priced-in at this point.
The next domino will be more of a shock. Spain, maybe? Spain is not so small...
Re: More Happy Cheer
yalanand
6/4/2012 10:41:28 AM
The next domino will be more of a shock. Spain, maybe? Spain is not so small...
@PredictableChaos, true. Everyone is worried about the domino effect. It started with Greece, spread to Spain and everyone is worried about where it will spread next ? And the worst part is they cant ask Greece to exit euro because that will create even more bigger problems.
Does anyone think a temporary exit from the eurozone by Greece would relieve pressure in the eurozone, and also help adjust the trade imbalance and restore growth in Greece?
Why do you think stock prices continued to rally in the US and in Europe yesterday after the ECB passed on lowering its official rate?
@Drivewaygirl, now that Spain has lined up financing, I think the whole Eurozone is just going to limp along, yoked like oxen to each other...
Re: More Happy Cheer
mInvestor
6/9/2012 5:42:49 PM
@Drivewaygirl,
Exiting from EU may help Greece (note it's a "may"), but it won't help EU. There are other countires also in trouble, like Spain and Italy. And it will set up an example so some countries can use "exit" strategy to "solve" economic problems.
Re: More Happy Cheer
Dex
6/11/2012 11:01:12 AM
It won't solve any economic problems. But it may force the european countries to a least deal with some of them.
Re: More Happy Cheer
cat tail
6/11/2012 11:19:18 AM
Yes, like France--which is responding to the crisis with a proposal to reduce the retirement age from 62 to 60. Go figure.
Re: More Happy Cheer
driven
6/11/2012 4:21:35 PM
Are you serious? That's just crazy in light of the euro economy.
Re: More Happy Cheer
mInvestor
6/11/2012 7:44:40 PM
Re: More Happy Cheer
tokyogai
6/2/2012 10:20:09 AM
While I agree that there is more to come, I am still not a full fledged bear. We might get a little good news- it is an election year after all.
I agree tokyogai, election years' tend to affect the market more than usual, or is it that people pay more attention to the market in an eleciton year?
Re: More Happy Cheer
tokyogai
6/2/2012 11:55:40 PM
I think polititians do things in their own self interest. That could mean some sort of economic stimulus.
Re: More Happy Cheer
yalanand
6/3/2012 9:27:21 AM
That could mean some sort of economic stimulus.
@tokyogai, Is there any end to economic stimulus ? Do you think government will continue pumping in money and keeping the stock markets artifically higher ? Is there any end to it ?
Re: More Happy Cheer
tokyogai
6/3/2012 9:29:49 AM
At some point it will have to end as the debt mounts. They just will not make any hard choices until after the election.
Yalanand, Is there any end in site to government stimulus? No. I think it was Scott who compared it to a drug -- and now we are addicted.
Re: More Happy Cheer
Dex
6/4/2012 8:47:37 AM
I agree, Noreen. I see the stimulus as a never ending ploy to keep things propped up.
Re: More Happy Cheer
yalanand
6/4/2012 10:35:11 AM
I think it was Scott who compared it to a drug -- and now we are addicted.
@Noreen, true. Sadly we are addicted to it. I am just worried what will be the side-effects of this.
Re: More Happy Cheer
mInvestor
6/9/2012 5:45:54 PM
@yalanad,
It's not about side-effect. The stimulus just doesn't help solving problem. It only prolonged the problem. And eventually it will lead huge debt that kill the whole economy fundation.
Re: More Happy Cheer
yalanand
6/3/2012 9:31:43 AM
Today's drop may just be the start of a larger decline.
@PredictableChaos, I totally agree with you. Compared to Europe and emerging markets, US markets have not corrected that much. If the weakness in Europe continues we might see even bigger drops in US markets.
Re : Big Blows to the Market Optimists
yalanand
6/3/2012 9:23:55 AM
But if that $10 bet is leveraged 25-to-1, I can lose $250 and have my entire net worth wiped out overnight.
@Scott, true 25-to-1 is very very risky. Earlier I used to do lot of leveraged trade in currencies and commodities. I thought it was the best way to make some quick bucks, but eventually I lost heavily and stopped leveraged trade completely.
Upbeat
driven
6/11/2012 10:43:13 AM
As much as I tend to be negati ve, I saw the voters support for Walker and the slight decrease in interest rates in China as positive moves in the past week.
Re: Upbeat
AskAsa
6/11/2012 10:52:58 AM
But the overall threat of a European recession still hangs heavy in the air.
Re: Upbeat
Dex
6/11/2012 11:00:14 AM
I'm at the point where I just want Greece to make some hartd decisions and get it over with already.
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